Title:
Population Projections for Nepal 1996-2016
Abstract: In the
first phase of the project, national and district level population
projections have been made. The projections incorporate new information
on the level and trends of fertility, which became available after the
last projections were made in 1994, and incorporate migration more fully
than had been done in the past. The projections are the result of
extensive analytical review of relevant population statistics of Nepal
collected since 1961. It also makes valuable contributions in terms of
projection methodology.
The medium
fertility decline projection shows that Nepal's population in 2016 would
be just over 32 million. The growth rate would decline but still remain
high (1.93% for 2011-16). The projection results also show that
projected population is relatively insensitive to the alternative
assumptions about the rate of fertility decline due to the phenomena of
"population momentum." Since the fertility rates as well as population
growth rates in Nepal are relatively high, the study recommends policies
and programs to reduce the level of fertility as quickly as possible.
The study also cautions that no practically realizable fertility decline
will avoid massive population growth in the next 20 years. In the second
phase of the project implicated population sector wise projections were
studied for agriculture, education, employment and health sectors.
Sponsored By : The FUTURES Group International, USA .
June 1998, Availability:
Photocopy